April 30, 2011
Preliminary Price Cap Review: Reports Published on Forecast Traffic and Revenue Needs of BC Ferries through 2016
In preparing its preliminary price cap decision for the third performance term issued March 31, the commission engaged consultants to (1) forecast BC Ferries’ traffic and (2) analyse the financial data in BC Ferries’ summission and estimate BC Ferries’ revenue requirement through 2016. Here are their reports:
- Performance Term 3 Traffic Forecasts of March 2011 by Perrin, Thorau Associates Ltd. and
- Financial Analysis for BC Ferry Commission’s Price Cap Review – Third Performance Term: Maximum Allowable Revenue from Fares and Reservation Fees of April 28 2011 by MMK Consulting Inc.
As further background to the current price cap review, see chart below. It shows that BC Ferries’ overall traffic volumes, as measured by an index which had a value of 100 in calendar 2003, peaked in 2007 and have since fallen below the volume carried in 2003.
Click here for a chart showing the full history of price caps since 2003 (including fuel surcharges/rebates), with future projected levels of price caps if the March 31, 2011 preliminary decision becomes final.